The National Retail Federation (NRF) predicts November and December sales in the US to reach $602 billion, climbing 3.9%.
This figure is higher than the 3.5% rise seen in 2012, but is lower than that seen in 2010 and 2011, when growth was over 5%.
It is also believed concerns about the overall health of the economy may negatively impact spending.
In a survey conducted this week by the NRF, over 66% of respondents said the ongoing shutdown of the American government would not affect their spending.
But, the organization added that if the shutdown continues for an extended period of time, it "certainly could have consequences for the broader economy, consumer spending and holiday retail sales," according to president and CEO Matthew Shay.
Shop.org, a division of the NRF, also foresees a 13 to 15% increase in online sales over the coming holiday season. Other trade groups also predict higher rates of sales growth during the Christmas period, with AlixPartners expecting gains of 4.1 to 4.9% and Deloitte stating there will be an increase of 4 to 4.5%.